Quit listening to the pundits. Even me. Listen to your gut on this whole debt ceiling debate. If you shut out the noise and listen carefully to what the players are saying, what you’ll hear is what I said earlier this week: There will be no deal.
Repeat it: There will be no deal.
Republicans won’t bend on the tax cuts. Problem is, they expire at the end of 2012. That’s the President’s leverage. All he has to do is nothing — no cuts, no deal, no nothing — and the deficit will be gone by 2016 anyway.
This is also why Mitch McConnell put out that silly suggestion that the President raise the debt ceiling on his own in three increments over the next 15 months or so.
McConnell’s plan gives the president the ability to raise the debt ceiling through 2012, in three separate increments, by requiring Obama to propose spending cuts greater than each request. Its main virtue is that these hikes would have to pass largely with Democratic support – something that McConnell and others believe will redound to Republicans’ benefit heading into the 2012 election cycle. And, the theory goes, if President Obama offers phony spending cuts, as he almost certain to do, his posturing as the “adult in the room” on entitlements and spending will be exposed as unserious.
But there’s the catch, too: the spending cuts do not have to be real or even implemented in order for the president to get his debt ceiling increases. McConnell acknowledged this at the press conference to announce the plan Tuesday afternoon. ABC’s Jonathan Karl asked: “Does it guarantee you’ll get your spending cuts or not?” McConnell responded: “No, it doesn’t.”
This is because McConnell understands that the debt ceiling must be raised and the 14th amendment solution is still lurking behind the curtain should Congress fail to act.
There will be no ‘grand bargain’. There can’t be. Politically, Republicans would have absolutely nothing to use as leverage in 2012 if one were struck. They didn’t ever plan to strike a deal, they can’t strike one, and so they will either cede to a clean debt ceiling resolution with no strings attached or they will force a constitutional solution.
Republicans thought holding the debt ceiling hostage was a grand way to force the president to cave into their demands. Problem is, he’s not caving. Perhaps his “what part of I won’t sign a short-term deal did you not understand” signal to Cantor is a clue:
I have reached the point where I say enough,” Obama concluded, according to Reuters. “Would Ronald Reagan be sitting here? I’ve reached my limit. This may bring my presidency down, but I will not yield on this.”
If you still feel the need to listen to pundits, listen to this guy. He gets it just right.
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
Here’s another prediction: Before this thing is over, Beltway pundits’ heads will explode and bloggers will be reaching for Valium, because that’s what we expect from a good thriller: lots of suspense, drama, personalities, and an predictable outcome.
